According to the news on 15th June, Horace Dediu, an analyst from the American market research company Asymco, has reported that iTunes accounts number has climbed from 0.1billion in 2009 to now 0.557 billion. But the net income of per account has dropped from USD$1200 to USD$400. The average annual economic value for per account is USD$40.
Apple has announced earlier this week that iTunes users have mounted to 0.557 billion, this is the eighth data renew from Apple in the past 4 years. The below chart shows that iTunes accounts of the previous announcement.
The chart shows that from the end of 2009 till now, iTunes accounts have increased nearly 5 times, which equals to a growth of about 500,000 users per day. The annual growth rate reaches to 44%.
The below graph shows "Yearly gross iTunes Revenue per account".
It can be seen from the graph that iTunes accounts have increased from 0.1billion in 2009 till 0.557 billion now. However, yearly gross iTunes Revenue per account has declined by half compared to 2009. One of the reasons is believe to be the extension of the userbase. However, 50% declination of gross iTunes revenue per account seems reasonable while the total iTunes accounts have quintupled.
Logically speaking, whoever owns an iTunes account must possess or use an Apple device. So it can be calculated that how much gross revenue that each iTunes account has brought to Apple. In order to remove the seasonal factors, Dediu has been tracking the average quarterly revenue and has figured how much that every iTunes account has brought for Apple.
The chart shows that with the increase of the userbase, the gaining from each account has decreased accordingly. Nevertheless, the fall is not that obvious and under the circumstance of account base is soaring as quintupled, the earnings from has cut by one-third. That is to say, every Apple user's annual expenditure on Apple device in 2009 is USD$400. But with the extension of userbase in 2012, this has reduced to about USD$300.
It is quite irregular to evaluate a company's value by the extent of users' expending changes, especially when the users are relatively loyal. Apple emphasizes the importance of user satisfaction, and this is also the exact thing that users care about. Hence it will be more reasonable to evaluate Apple's value by considering users' repeat purchase behavior.
The chart shows that during 2009-2012, Apple's EV per iTunes account is about USD$1200 and now has dropped around one-third, USD$440.
Even though the expenditure level for per iTunes account is reducing but new account is speeding up. At the meantime, Apple stock price reflects that the value of every Apple user decline by half compared to 2009. The capital stock and the income ratio has dropped from previously 3.2 to 1.5. This change occurs in nine month and what accounts for the user devaluation of could be the decrease of customer satisfaction or loyalty. But Dediu thinks that this has not happened yet.